DECLINING PUBLIC TRANSPORT: IS CAR OWNERSHIP TO BLAME?

The authors give reasons for their disagreement with the generally held principle; they contend that changes in fare levels have been far more influential and that Department of Transport's fare index underestimates real increases. The relationship between car ownership and the usage of road public transport when compared with the expected change in stage passenger journeys using the D.TP formula shows that increasing car ownership explains only a relatively small proportion of the decline. Analysis of the national travel surveys indicate that about two thirds of the loss in patronage is due to other factors. The authors claim that the estimated 11 per cent decline in patronage due to the increased fares in real terms amounts to another 30 per cent of the observed decline. The evidence given in the paper suggests that more weight should be given to the effects of price on bus travel as opposed to changes in its quality. /TRRL/