Predicting state standardized achievement test scores using curriculum based measurement in third grade

With No Child Left Behind placing strong penalties on schools not making adequate yearly progress, many schools are searching for ways to predict student performance on state standardized achievement tests. The current study provides evidence as to the predictive nature of oral reading fluency, vocabulary, and comprehension data taken from a basal reading series, as well as student reading levels from an informal reading inventory, on Illinois Standards Achievement Test (ISAT) performance. Multiple regression analyses showed these measures to account for slightly more than one-half of the overall predicted variance in ISAT Reading performance. Furthermore, t-tests showed that a significant discrepancy existed on all measures between students meeting or exceeding standards on the ISAT compared with those students who received below standards or academic warning scores. Although oral reading fluency tended to be the best predictor of ISAT success, results of the current study show other factors contribute to success as well.