Valuing the Potential Impacts of GEOSS: A Systems Dynamics Approach

Global earth observations are perceived as instrumental to attaining sustainable development goals. Methods to assess the long-run socioeconomic benefits of the emerging global Earth observation system of systems (GEOSS) as an integrated multisensor infrastructure have been missing to date. This chapter presents a systems dynamics approach to assess the effect of improvements in Earth observations across the nine societal benefit areas of the Group on Earth Observation (GEO). Two types of integration are assessed with the proposed model structure: (1) measuring benefits in an integrated assessment environment (e.g., improved weather forecasting through better measurement of cloud properties could lead to benefits in the agriculture, energy and water sectors); and (2) measuring benefits of an integrated observing system (e.g., in areas with high cloud cover, improvements in the resolution of optical sensors will lead to benefits only if linked to supplementary observing systems such a radar or ground surveys). The benefits from integration relate mostly to economies of scope on both the observation and benefit system sides. Cost reduction from economies of scale are derived from a global or large scale observing system vis-à-vis the currently prevailing patchwork system of national or regional observing systems. Results indicate that the total system benefits of GEOSS are usually orders of magnitude higher than their costs. Benefits are also policy dependent and tend to increase with the degree of implementation of mainly international environmental agreements.