A Bayesian Approach to Missile Reliability

Each year, billions of dollars are spent on missiles and munitions by the United States government. It is therefore vital to have a dependable method to estimate the reliability of these missiles. It is important to take into account the age of the missile, the reliability of different components of the missile, and the impact of different launch phases on missile reliability. Additionally, it is of importance to estimate the missile performance under a variety of test conditions, or modalities. Bayesian logistic regression is utilized to accurately make these estimates. This project presents both previously proposed methods and ways to combine these methods to accurately estimate the reliability of the Cruise Missile.