Probabilistic Risk Assessment using Fuzzy Event Tree Analysis For Cable-Stayed Bridge Construction

As basic research for development of systematic probabilistic risk assessment, Event Tree Analysis, one of the existing risk analysis and modeling techniques, may not be suitable for realistic risk assessment for large construction projects such as long-span bridge constructions because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and conditional failure probability of the risk events precisely. Therefore, this paper presents systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and suggests an approach for probabilistic risk assessment of PSC cable-stayed bridges using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts, so called Fuzzy Event Tree Analysis. It may be stated that the systematic models and methods for probabilistic risk assessment of large cable-stayed bridge construction proposed in this paper may be very useful in practice for the realistic assessment of construction projects.