General Equilibrium Analysis Of The Effects Of Multilateral And Canadian Trade Liberalization: I Multilateral Trade Liberalization Ii Canadian Trade Liberalization Iii Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Of Model Results

The thesis is comprised of three essays which analyze trade liberalization on a multilateral basis and in the Canadian context. Essay I concerns multilateral liberalization, Essay II concerns Canadian liberalization, and Essay III presents extensive systematic sensitivity analysis of the results of Essays I and II.;The extension of short-run wage rigidities is found to markedly reduce the welfare gains from multilateral liberalization under some circumstances, while extending sector-specificity of capital has a much smaller impact on welfare and adjustment effects of multilateral liberalization.;In Essay II, Whalley's (1985) model of global trade is revised with the incorporation of economies-of-scale features, in a way similar to Harris and Cox (1984). It is found that both unilateral liberalization or bilateral liberalization with the U.S. cause Canada to suffer small welfare losses. Liberalization may still be in the interest of Canada if compensation by the U.S. is possible. The contrast of these results, with those of Harris and Cox is investigated, but only part of the discrepancy is resolved. The indirect calibration procedure adopted by Harris and Cox is identified as a potential source of the discrepancy.;Extensive conditional and unconditional systematic sensitivity analysis conducted in Essay II yields the following results with regard to systematic sensitivity analysis of NGE model results: (i) Unconditional procedures on selected elasticities yield more diffuse distributions of the results than conditional procedures on all of the elasticities. (ii) Pagan-Shannon approximations of unconditional results are often very accurate, resource saving substitutes for the unconditional analysis.;The results of all three essays suggest a simple relationship between the elasticity configuration of the model, and the resulting welfare effects of multilateral or bilateral trade liberalization.