EU ENLARGEMENT: A NEW DIMENSION / доклад на 25 конференции IAAE, Reshaping Agriculture’s Contribution to Society, International Convention Centre, Durban, South Africa, 16-23 August 2003

Enlarging the EU presents a tremendous effort with obstacles for old and new member states especially in the agricultural sector. In this paper, impacts of a new accession round were analyzed with the help of the comparative-static general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). The standard version was extended to allow for a better representation of specific instruments of the Common Agriculture Policy and the EU budget. To capture detailed effects in new member states, simulations were carried out for 12 candidate countries, the EU-15 and the rest of the world. As for products the focus lies on agriculture. Scenarios include an enlargement with and without the transfer of direct payments in the new member states, according to the proposal of the EU commission from January 2002. Simulations in a post-Agenda 2000 environment led to heterogeneous country specific impacts in the accession countries whereas the changes within EU-15 and the rest of the world were negligible. Due to adjustments in tariffs, trade balances of the new member states were deteriorating while welfare effects are positive. Transfer of direct payments led to more pronounced effects, especially with regard to output and trade. Without direct payments accession countries would be net contributors to the EU budget. This would change when they become eligible for this subsidy. In general, the analysis shows the importance of a country specific perspective.