A Commuter Rail Ridership Forecasting Case Study From Southern California

This paper discusses how the Southern California Regional Rail Authority (SCRRA), the operator of the Metrolink commuter rail service in the Los Angeles area developed forecasts of ridership through 2030 in the absence of a traditional travel demand model for commuter rail. No traditional travel demand model for commuter rail existed at the time of SCRRA’s planning effort, culminating in its 2007 SCRRA Commuter Rail Strategic Assessment. Instead, SCRRA built upon a forecasting methodology developed for another Southern California commuter rail planning effort to assess the impacts on ridership of potential service improvements in future years. This case study offers an approach which other commuter rail operators, who lack access to a commuter rail travel demand model, might use to forecast ridership and assist in planning system developments.