Modelling Demand for Long-Distance Travel in Great Britain: Stated preference surveys to support the modelling of demand for high-speed rail

In order to examine a number of policy interventions (including demand for high-speed rail (HSR)), among policies which will influence long-distance automobile, classic railroad and air travel demand, the United Kingdom Department for Transport is developing a model to predict passenger demand for long-distance travel. Long-distance journeys are defined as (one-way) trips of over 50 miles. In the summer of 2008, a study was conducted to explore the feasibility of developing a multi-modal model of long-distance travel. Since then, National Travel Survey (NTS) data on long-distance travel were used to estimate the travel demand model. This was considered to be phases 1 and 2 of model development. In the Phase 2 study it was recommended that a Stated Preference (SP) study be conducted to provide more recent evidence on the likelihood of automobile, classic railroad and air travelers to transfer to HSR. This required SP surveys with automobile, classic railroad and air travelers who have undertaken long-distance journeys. The specific objectives of the SP study were to: 1. collect background information on a recently traveled long-distance trip; 2. in the context of that trip, provide (parameter) values for the different service components in the mode choice modeling process that underlies the travel demand forecasts; 3. quantify where HSR fits in the modal choice schema; 4. collect background information on travelers’ travel preferences, socioeconomic characteristics, and attitudes and, in addition, quantify the impacts of these variables on the demand for HSR.