ON THE LONG-TERM JOINT DISTRIBUTION OF CHARACTERISTIC WAVE HEIGHT AND PERIOD AND ITS APPLICATION
Zhide Fang, Shongtao Dai, Cong Jin
Abstract
Zhide Fang, Shongtao Dai, Cong Jin
Abstract
By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic wave height H and period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean stations, it was established that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave periods for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log-normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi's bivariate log-normal model (Ochi 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, the authors have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T/H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) they established a new parameterised model for the long-term joint distribution (P(H.T). As an example of the application of the new model, a method for estimating wave periods associated with extreme wave height is given.
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By analysing the scatter diagrams of characteristic wave height H and period T on the basis of instrumental data from various ocean stations, it was established that the conditional expectation and standard deviation of wave periods for a given wave height can be better predicted by using the equations of normal linear regression rather than by those based on the log-normal law. The latter was implied in Ochi's bivariate log-normal model (Ochi 1978) for the long-term joint distribution of H and T. With the expectation and standard deviation predicted by the normal linear regression equations and applying proper types of distribution, the authors have obtained the conditional distribution of T for given H. Then combining this conditional P(T/H) with long-term marginal distribution of the wave height P(H) they established a new parameterised model for the long-term joint distribution (P(H.T). As an example of the application of the new model, a method for estimating wave periods associated with extreme wave height is given.
Key concepts: Mathematics, Joint probability distribution, Term (time), Standard deviation, Significant wave height, Bivariate analysis, Conditional probability distribution, Marginal distribution