Simulations of Arctic ozone depletion with current and doubled levels of CO2

Results from idealized 3-D simulations of a dynamical-radiative-photochemical model of the stratosphere are presented for the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring. For a simulation of a quiescent winter, it is found that with current levels of CO2 only modest polar ozone depletion occurs, consistent with observations. For a second simulation with the same planetary wave amplitudes in the upper troposphere but with doubled CO2, the model predicts a northern hemisphere ozone hole comparable to that observed in Antarctica with almost complete ozone destruction at 20 km. Reasons for the marked difference between the simulations are identified.