GROWTH ESTIMATION OF SELECTED MAJOR CROPS IN BANGLADESH

The keen interest of this research paper is to estimate the growth rates of area, production and yield of selected major crops viz., aus, aman, boro, jute and wheat in Bangladesh. The time series data have been used for this purpose. This study covers the time period of 1980/81 to 2009/10. The study was entirely based on secondary data. Growth rates of area, production and yield of major crops were estimated by fitting exponential trend function. Aus, aman, boro, jute and wheat are major crops grown in our country. It is observed that growth of area and production of aus has declined at the rate of 4.74 and 2.69 percent respectively which were statistically significant during the entire period (1980/81 to 2009/10). Increased growth rate of aman yield affected increased production significantly at the rate of 1.48 percent while area declining over the period and area and production of boro increase significantly at the rate of 4.67 and 6.43 percent respectively during the study period (1980/81- 2009/10). Growth rates of area and production of jute had declined significantly at the rate of 2.00 and 0.77 percent respectively over the whole period. But yield of jute showed significant positive growth at the rate of 1.23 percent during the whole period. Area of wheat grew at the rate of 0.93 percent which was statistically significant that helped obtaining increased production (1980/81 to 2005/06) but overall period it was negative and statistically insignificant. Area increase and yield increase helped increase production of crops of wheat, all boro and HYV boro. Analyzing and comparing the growth rates of area, production and yield of major crops may guide the risk averse farmers allowing judicious allocation of cultivated area which ultimately would increase the production and stabilize agricultural supply in Bangladesh. An appropriate price policy, supportive services and massive government program can bring about desired area allocation and consequently in the production of crops in Bangladesh. In short, findings from this research paper may be helpful for planners and policy makers in formulating strategies to improve the efficiency of agricultural sector which is backbone of the economy.