TECHNICAL CHANGE IN TRANSPORTATION

Technological change has for centuries been based on a philosophy of progress. Lately, however, this doctrine has been superseded by one of welfare, i.e. purely economic considerations are being increasingly modified by ethical, social and biological criteria. As far as transportation is concerned, private persons, private firms and public enterprises have different characteristics and are influenced by different criteria. Transportation is greatly dependent on infrastructure. Changes in infrastructure are very expensive. The cost of developing new means of transport is enormous. Cost of developing a new civil aircraft would have been $3-5 billion in 1978, and existing models are instead being modified. Development of a new car engine was estimated in 1977 at $5-10 billion. Changes in the transport sector are influenced by social and ecological criteria far more than other technical sectors. Many organisational experiments are taking place in public transport concerning combination of cars, taxis, large and small buses, regular and demand controlled traffic, etc. Goods handling is also ready for organisational change. Development of railways was due to the need for long distance transport, development of cars to flexible transportation caused by urban expansion, and that of air travel to the need for international travel. What will the next development be? (TRRL)