Freeway Work Zone Lane Change Model

Lane changing and merging occurs more frequently in work zones than other roadway conditions due to mandatory and discretionary lane changes. The increased driver workload during lane changing in work zone area can impact the safety of work zones and lead to crashes. Although the configuration of the work zone has a significant impact on the number of lane changes that occur in the work zone, the operational performance of the roadway within the work zone also has an impact. The objective of this research was to develop a lane changing model that estimates the probability of lane changes occurring within a work zone. The research also sought to calibrate the current Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) weaving model to determine the potential use of this model in estimating the number of lane changes in a work zone. Using field data collected by cameras in a work zone area, an ordinal regression model was developed to estimate the probability of lane changes in the work zone. Lane change models were developed for upstream, within and downstream of the work zone. The significant variables are more speed related than flow related variables. The results are useful in understanding how traffic operations can be managed to reduce lane changes and also for use in simulating lane change behavior in work zone conditions.