TRAFFIC SAFETY POTENTIALS AND TRAFFIC SAFETY REFORMS 1994-2000

The traffic safety situation so far during the 90's shows a clear improvement compared to the situation at the end of the 80's. In this report an attempt has been made to describe what we can expect to happen up to the end of the century. For several reasons the trend indicates a continued favourable traffic safety situation. If we assume that no economic boom will occur before the turn of the century there are no direct signs that indicate that car traffic will increase to any considerable extent until then. There are of course a multitude of measures or changes that affect traffic safety. At the same time there are approximately ten explicit reforms in the 1994 Traffic Safety Program involving active traffic safety efforts with the aim of increasing the scope of certain traffic safety measures or compliance with targets for the year 2000. Most important from a traffic safety standpoint is the continuous improvement of the network of roads and streets but also changes in the composition of traffic etc. Predicting the extent or existence of measures in the year 2000 is thus based on what has happened during the period 1994 to 1996 and an evaluation of developments up to 2000. The two most important factors are that the traffic does not increase significantly and road conditions are gradually improved at least to the same extent as before. If all goals are reached to a significant extent the target of 400 deaths in 2000, as stated in the 1994 Traffic Safety Program, can be met. At the same time it is obvious that the targets of the reforms in many cases have difficulties in reaching the expected values with today's activities. The seriousness of the traffic safety target therefore need more active traffic safety work.