APPLICATION OF THE SITUATIONAL APPROACH TO DEPICT A MODEL OF PERSONAL LONG-DISTANCE TRAVEL

A study undertaken to determine the amount of personal long-distance travel in the Federal Republic of Germany to explain present modal choice and to forecast the likely future development of modal choice is described. To achieve these goals, an individually oriented behavioral model was developed (the situational approach) that first identifies the individual's (perceived) decisionmaking situation as precisely as possible, then determines the maximum potential for change if external conditions are altered, and, finally, tries to forecast the likely responses to planned policies. It can be shown that in personal long-distance travel the potential number of persons who would change mode if travel duration and travel costs were altered is comparatively small. On the hand, the question of trip generation is much more important. When trips are classified according to trip purpose, it can be shown that most vacation trips would be made if external conditions were less favorable to travel, although the type of vacation trips made might be modified. For other personal travel, in which a comparable type of modification is frequently not possible, persons would often respond to restrictive measures by reducing trip frequency.