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THE OCCURRENCE OF ACCIDENTS AND TRAFFIC FLOW
Werner Brilon
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Abstract
THE INVESTIGATION DEALS WITH THE RELATION BETWEEN THE DANGER OF ACCIDENT AND THE VOLUME OF TRAFFIC. IT IS SUPPORTED BY ACCIDENT STATISTICS AND TRAFFIC COUNT RESULTS ON 10 SECTIONS OF MOTORWAY AND 5 SECTIONS OF MAIN ROAD. THE ACCIDENT POTENTIAL IS REPRESENTED BY THE ACCIDENT RATE AND THE ACCIDENT COST RATE. FOR MOTORWAYS AND MAIN ROADS THE ACCIDENT RATE HAS A U-FORM DISTRIBUTION, DEPENDING ON THE VOLUME OF TRAFFIC. THIS ARISES FROM THE COMBINATION OF A HIGH RATE OF DRIVING ACCIDENTS IN LIGHT TRAFFIC AND AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF COLLISION ACCIDENTS, WHICH OCCUR MAINLY IN HEAVY TRAFFIC. THE LOWEST ACCIDENT RATE OCCURS IN NORMAL TRAFFIC. THE PATTERN OF THE ACCIDENT COST RATE IS SIMILAR FOR MOTORWAYS. IT DECREASES HOWEVER ON MAIN ROADS AS TRAFFIC VOLUME INCREASES, I.E. THE GREATEST DANGER OF ACCIDENT ON A MAIN ROAD IS WHEN TRAFFIC IS LIGHT. TO SUPPLEMENT THESE FINDINGS, MEASUREMENTS OF TRAFFIC FLOW WERE CARRIED OUT. THEY INDICATED THAT THE PERCENTAGE OF POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS VEHICLE SPACINGS INCREASES AS TRAFFIC VOLUME INCREASES. THIS PERCENTAGE ALSO DEPENDS ON THE SPEED OF THE VEHICLES.