Safety impacts of changes in commercial vehicle traffic

BTRE (2002) has forecast the freight task in tonne-kilometres to grow by about 140 per cent by 2020 compared with 30 per cent for car traffic. As the outcome in terms of persons injured is more severe where a heavy vehicle is involved than when one is not involved, there is concern about what effect the increasing proportion of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream will have on the numbers of persons killed and the numbers of persons admitted to hospital as a result of road crashes. Recent work done by ARRB looked at the crash involvement of rigid trucks, articulated trucks and all other vehicles and at the outcomes in terms of the numbers of persons killed or admitted to hospital per vehicle kilometre traveled by each vehicle type. It found that fatalities are declining in the face of growing traffic and even faster growth in the freight task. The clear implication is that average payloads are rising, and risk is falling. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E211985.