Prediction is still relevant

This article is the viewpoint of Professor Ron Bridle on the growth of travel and congestion in the coming years. He suggests that the Government cannot impose universal restraint without an adverse public reaction and unacceptable economic penalties, but suggests that restraint is necessary in large cities. Past evidence shows that while city traffic can be restrained, the vehicle trips are induced to go elsewhere. Regional dispersal policies have not been followed with persistence and land use planning has been inconsistent, with a drift towards the South East. He concludes that increasing congestion on the motorway network will not slow the growth of traffic on the interurban network. The questions that all road transport policies must answer to obtain public approval are outlined. These relate to the amount of tax the individual must pay, the ability of differential or targeted charging to redirect traffic to roads with spare capacity, the ability of linked bypasses to provide environmental gain, and the ability of regional organisations to combine transport and land use planning to optimise their interaction.