THE OUTLOOK FOR ROAD RELATED REVENUES AND ROAD TRANSPORT DEMAND: FUTURES THINKING AND SCENARIO EXPLORATION

Technology development, information systems and the application of intelligent transport systems, for example, will influence transport demand as well as investment and expenditure needs of the future. The role of the private sector in the future will also be subject to a range of factors and government policy. In the context of these and other expected changes, demand for road services can be expected to continue to grow causing road expenditure to face substantial upward pressure from all users for increased road investment and maintenance expenditure. Therefore, there is a need to consider a broad range of policy options for future revenue streams from road transport. To achieve this, in this study a number of scenarios have been considered and the implications for road transport related revenue and future transport demand assessed. Scenarios of road transport futures were simulated by applying the Scenario ExplorerTM software developed by ARRB Transport Research. The Scenario Explorer has been developed as an Excel/Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) tool. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E209537.