Quantifying the Impacts of the Recent Economic Crisis on a Local Tourism Industry and Economy system

The purpose of this study is to explore the accuracy issue of the Input-Output model in quantifying the impacts of the 2007 economic crisis on a local tourism industry and economy. Though the model has been extensively used in the tourism impact analysis, its estimation accuracy is rarely verified empirically. The Metro Orlando area in Florida is investigated as a case study, and the visitor expenditure change between 2007 and 2008 is taken as the direct shock. The total impacts are assessed in terms of output and employment, and are compared with the actual data. This study finds that there are surprisingly large discrepancies among the estimated and actual results, and the Input-Output model tends to overestimate the negative impacts. By investigating the local economic activities during the study period, this study made some explorative efforts in explaining such discrepancies. Theoretical and practical implications are then suggested