THE EFFECT OF INTENSIVE MINIBUS SERVICES ON URBAN TRANSPORT DEMAND . TRAVEL BEHAVIOR RESEARCH. 5TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRAVEL BEHAVIOR

This paper discusses various aspects of the effects of intensive minibus services on urban travel demand in the United Kingdom (UK). Minibus operation is now feasible, mainly due to the high unemployment rate, which enables the easier recruitment of drivers at lower costs with more flexible working conditions. With minibuses, frequency of services can be increased by up to three times, and increased penetration of residential estates is possible. There has been a sharp rise in passenger traffic due mainly to more frequent services, but also for several other reasons. However, minibuses, especially when smaller, are perceived as being less easy and convenient to use. Minibus service costs are estimated using a simplified 'whole life costing', using discounted cash flows. The crucial questions for this financial analysis are: (1) how the total costs of a typical minibus service compare with those of an equivalent conventional service: (2) whether this cost differential can be matched by revenues. A systematic sensitivity analysis showed that variations in round trip time, and to a lesser extent wage rates, have more influence on minibus financial performance that unit capital, unit maintenance costs, lifespan, or vehicle availability. The paper ends by assessing current and future developments in the UK, and considering implications for some other countries. (TRRL)