Uncertain Housing Moves: A System Dynamics Study, exploring the effects of uncertainties on the position of low income households in the Dutch Social Housing Sector

The coalition agreement of the current Dutch government describes four policy changes which should improve the accessibility of the social housing market for low incomes. The effects of these policy changes are unknown due to unpredictable housing move behaviour of households. A system dynamics model, taking this unpredictability into account, was created to explore the effects of the policy changes till 2020. Latin Hypercube simulations suggest that the allocation of low income households to the social housing sector improves, while the uncertainty ranges of absolute number of low income households of in the social housing sector do not differentiate among scenarios. The model can be improved by adding a detailed owner occupied market to the model, to provide a more complete overview of the effects of the policy changes.