Aging China: the demographic challenge to China's economic prospects

The growth of the elderly population (aged 65 and over) during the next two decades is projected to be faster in Asian countries, with an annual growth rate of 3–3.3%, than in developed countries (1.7%). The ageing in Asia is particularly dramatic for China: between 2000 and 2050, the proportion of people aged 65 and older will rise from 7% to 23%, numbering more than 332 million in 2050 in China, far greater than the combined elderly populations of North America, Europe and Japan. This book tries to capture the significant economic, market, social and demographic factors that will shape the future of China and the role that ageing will play in the mix of influences. While the author acknowledges the complexity of China as one country, two systems (rural, urban), but four societies (farming, manufacturing, services, knowledge), and the difficulty of getting accurate statistical data in China, he endeavours to probe into the interaction of socio-economic changes with ageing in China: the movement from a command to market economy, rural-to-urban migration, extended to nuclear family, imbalance arising from one-child policy, the change from a pyramid to an upside-down pyramid age structure, and a rising elderly dependency ratio. Ageing is seen negatively as a ‘burden’ and ‘challenge’ in this book. Will the destiny of China be shaped by demographics alone, as suggested by the author? In the Chinese culture, longevity is something to be treasured and celebrated. The Chinese character for ‘longevity’ symbolises the younger generation offering their produce to the older generation, an indication of intergenerational harmony rather than tension. Someone interested in the economic aspects of ageing in China would enjoy this book, but it throws more uncertainties and questions than answers.