HOW TO FORECAST PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEMAND IN THE AGE OF THE CAR

In 1980, the Transport and Road Research Laboratory published a report (the 'black book') on evaluating demand evaluation for public transport services in the UK. The work has been updated by the Universities of Leeds, Oxford and Westminster, University College London and TRL. Five main subject areas are considered in the new report: the effects of fares and service quality on public transport demand; the influence of income and car ownership; interactions between land-use and transport; the demand generated by new modes and services; and the effect of other transport policies on public transport demand. The new report found that fare elasticities were dynamic and varied with mode of transport, time period and people's income. The exact relationships between income, car ownership and the demand for public transport were still not clear, but there appeared to be a strong correlation between rising incomes and falling bus patronage. The report found that the attributes of public transport vehicles were largely unquantifiable. The relationship between land use and public transport was compounded by age distribution, employment categories, income and car ownership.