HIGH DEMAND, GOOD ECONOMICS EXPECTED TO KEEP AGING AIRCRAFT IN SERVICE

Air transport industry consensus is that older transport aircraft will continue in service despite substantial increases in required maintenance expected to be mandated by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Though maintenance costs could go up by nearly 50% for near-term compliance with FAA airworthiness directives, airline officials say the older aircraft will still be cheaper to operate than expensive new aircraft. Another factor that will keep older aircraft in service is 2- to 3-year waiting lines to buy new aircraft, at a time when airlines are running at high load factors and need every aircraft available. These conclusions come from initial studies performed by a large industry/government program to ensure the safety of older aircraft. The current program was prompted by the Aloha Airlines accident on April 28 in which an 18 x 21-ft. section of the forward cabin skin came off a 19-year-old Boeing 737-200 and a flight attendant lost her life. The overall aging aircraft effort involves many organizations and hundreds of individuals operating in a loosely coordinated fashion. The two main centers of the effort are the FAA and an aircraft operator/manufacturer team represented by the Air Transport Association of America and the Aerospace Industries Association of America. Most of the effort is directed at large transport airframes, but some work is being directed toward powerplants and light aircraft as well.