TRANSIT AND PARATRANSIT DEMAND ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES

In identifying public transportation demand in small cities and rural areas many techniques are available, ranging from simple graphs to computer-based models requiring trained staff and a high level of resources. Ridership groups who do not own or do not drive autos include senior citizens, handicapped, economically transit-dependent, students, and choice riders/commuters; trip purposes must also be considered. Determinants of demand are identified as socioeconomic characteristics, community structure and type of service. Seven methods for estimating demand for fixed-route systems are described, followed by five methods for demand-responsive services. A conservative estimate of how many people will use a new or improved transit service is vital in selling such a program to those who must fund it.