EXAMINING LIKELY CONSEQUENCES OF A NEW TRANSIT FARE POLICY

An evaluation model is presented for examining the likely consequences of implementing alternative transit fare policies. The model weights responses to on-board ridership survey responses based on disaggregate fare elasticity estimates in projecting future patronage levels and revenue income. Revenue and cost data associated with specific users' trips are also combined in comparing the farebox recovery levels among various categories of trip distance, time of day, and user demographics. The functional components of the model are described and its use is demonstrated. Fare, cost, and travel data from the Southern California Rapid Transit District are used to examine the current fare policy of the system. Uniform fares are found to be both inequitable and inefficient. Both distance-based and time-of-day fare scenarios are designed and tested in terms of their ability to correct some of the problems associated with flat fares. Finely graduated fares are found to be best suited for mitigating inequities, and stage fares seem to be a more cost-effective pricing strategy. As transit funding sources continue to shrink, it is imperative that analytic tools be developed for examining the full range of impacts of alternative fare systems.