Perseverance of Power: The Relevancy of Nuclear Deterrence in the Future

Abstract : This study will examine the role of nuclear deterrence through historical case studies, applying lessons learned to anticipate the role nuclear deterrence might play in the most likely scenarios of the future. The role of nuclear deterrence has rarely been static, suited for all contexts. Instead, nuclear deterrence has evolved from its earliest use in the post-World War II multipolar environment, to the bipolar international order of the Cold War, through today's setting following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Further, this study demonstrates that while the characteristics of nuclear deterrence have evolved to meet the different contexts of nuclear rivalries, its nature is enduring. It will first present an examination of the elements of nuclear deterrence: credibility, rationality, and stability. It will then overlay these elements upon the types and characteristics of nuclear deterrence practiced throughout the nuclear era: extended and central nuclear deterrence, nuclear deterrence through punishment and denial, and immediate and general nuclear deterrence.