Ireland and the European Monetary System

It is now 19 months since Ireland began its membership of the European Monetary System. To the man in the street the record of those months is a standing warning not to listen to the advice of economists on important matters such as the value of the domestic currency. With the Irish pound at a discount of 20 per cent to sterling at the time of writing there are considerable grounds for resentment among a public who were led to expect a premium over sterling as a bonus (or cost) of EMS membership. It would be inappropriate here to discuss the reasons why sterling has proved so strong since March 1979. It might be noted, however, that no leading currency forecasters got the direction, let alone the strength, of sterling's movement correct in early 1979.