2024Unpublished venueOpen access

On Bayes Factors for Hypothesis Tests

Karl Christoph Klauer, Constantin G. Meyer‐Grant, David Kellen

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Abstract

We develop alternative families of Bayes factors for use in hypothesis tests as alternatives to the popular default Bayes factors. The alternative Bayes factors are derived for the statistical analyses most commonly used in psychological research – for one-sample and two-sample t tests, for regression and ANOVA analyses. They possess the same desirable theoretical and practical properties as the default Bayes factors and satisfy additional theoretical desiderata while mitigating against two features of the default priors that we consider implausible. They can be conveniently computed via an R package that we provide. Furthermore, hypothesis tests based on Bayes factors and those based on significance tests are juxtaposed. This discussion leads to the new finding that default Bayes factors as well as the alternative Bayes factors are equivalent to test-statistic based Bayes factors as proposed by Johnson (2005). We highlight test-statistic based Bayes factors as a general approach to Bayes-factor computation that is applicable to many hypothesis-testing problems for which an effect-size measure has been proposed and for which test power can be computed.

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We develop alternative families of Bayes factors for use in hypothesis tests as alternatives to the popular default Bayes factors. The alternative Bayes factors are derived for the statistical analyses most commonly used in psychological research – for one-sample and two-sample t tests, for regression and ANOVA analyses. They possess the same desirable theoretical and practical properties as the default Bayes factors and satisfy additional theoretical desiderata while mitigating against two features of the default priors that we consider implausible. They can be conveniently computed via an R package that we provide. Furthermore, hypothesis tests based on Bayes factors and those based on significance tests are juxtaposed. This discussion leads to the new finding that default Bayes factors as well as the alternative Bayes factors are equivalent to test-statistic based Bayes factors as proposed by Johnson (2005). We highlight test-statistic based Bayes factors as a general approach to Bayes-factor computation that is applicable to many hypothesis-testing problems for which an effect-size measure has been proposed and for which test power can be computed.

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Available abstract

We develop alternative families of Bayes factors for use in hypothesis tests as alternatives to the popular default Bayes factors. The alternative Bayes factors are derived for the statistical analyses most commonly used in psychological research – for one-sample and two-sample t tests, for regression and ANOVA analyses. They possess the same desirable theoretical and practical properties as the default Bayes factors and satisfy additional theoretical desiderata while mitigating against two features of the default priors that we consider implausible. They can be conveniently computed via an R package that we provide. Furthermore, hypothesis tests based on Bayes factors and those based on significance tests are juxtaposed. This discussion leads to the new finding that default Bayes factors as well as the alternative Bayes factors are equivalent to test-statistic based Bayes factors as proposed by Johnson (2005). We highlight test-statistic based Bayes factors as a general approach to Bayes-factor computation that is applicable to many hypothesis-testing problems for which an effect-size measure has been proposed and for which test power can be computed.

Key concepts: Bayes factor, Bayes' theorem, Bayes error rate, Bayes' rule, Statistical hypothesis testing, Test statistic, Statistic, Econometrics

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