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2023•ALKÜ Fen Bilimleri DergisiOpen access

The Best Fit Flood Probability Distribution for Alibeyköy Basin in İstanbul, Türkiye

Mehmet Dikici, Cevza Melek Kazezyılmaz‐Alhan, Bihrat Önöz

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Abstract

Determination of peak flow rates is crucial in reducing the economic and social impact of flood. Therefore, the investigation of various methods for estimating flood is of paramount importance. Flood frequency analysis can be used as a practical method in predicting the peak flow values as the flood peaks have return periods that are typically much larger than the recording length. In this study, 7 different probability distributions (normal (N), two-parameter lognormal (LN2), three-parameter lognormal (LN3), extreme value type I (Gumbel), generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson Type III (P3) and Log-Pearson Type III (LP3)) are employed for flood frequency analysis of Alibeyköy Watershed using 44-years of measured annual maximum flow. K-S and PPCC tests are applied to determine the most suitable distributions to estimate the flood flow rate. Based on these tests, GEV and Gumbel distributions appear to be the most preferable distributions in flood flow estimation.

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What this paper is about

Determination of peak flow rates is crucial in reducing the economic and social impact of flood. Therefore, the investigation of various methods for estimating flood is of paramount importance. Flood frequency analysis can be used as a practical method in predicting the peak flow values as the flood peaks have return periods that are typically much larger than the recording length. In this study, 7 different probability distributions (normal (N), two-parameter lognormal (LN2), three-parameter lognormal (LN3), extreme value type I (Gumbel), generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson Type III (P3) and Log-Pearson Type III (LP3)) are employed for flood frequency analysis of Alibeyköy Watershed using 44-years of measured annual maximum flow. K-S and PPCC tests are applied to determine the most suitable distributions to estimate the flood flow rate. Based on these tests, GEV and Gumbel distributions appear to be the most preferable distributions in flood flow estimation.

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Available abstract

Determination of peak flow rates is crucial in reducing the economic and social impact of flood. Therefore, the investigation of various methods for estimating flood is of paramount importance. Flood frequency analysis can be used as a practical method in predicting the peak flow values as the flood peaks have return periods that are typically much larger than the recording length. In this study, 7 different probability distributions (normal (N), two-parameter lognormal (LN2), three-parameter lognormal (LN3), extreme value type I (Gumbel), generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson Type III (P3) and Log-Pearson Type III (LP3)) are employed for flood frequency analysis of Alibeyköy Watershed using 44-years of measured annual maximum flow. K-S and PPCC tests are applied to determine the most suitable distributions to estimate the flood flow rate. Based on these tests, GEV and Gumbel distributions appear to be the most preferable distributions in flood flow estimation.

Key concepts: Gumbel distribution, Log-normal distribution, Flood myth, Generalized extreme value distribution, Extreme value theory, Mathematics, Statistics, Return period

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The Best Fit Flood Probability Distribution for Alibeyköy Basin in İstanbul, Türkiye — Research Paper | ScholarLens