Assessment of Rice Yield Sensitivity to Changing Weather Conditions in Prayagraj Using DSSAT V4.7.5 Crop Simulation Model

The Field experiments were conducted during 2012-19 to determine the effect of changing weather such as (Tmax, Tmin, Tavg, Solar radiation and CO2 concentration) on grain yield, LAI, Anthesis days and maturity days of four rice cultivars i.e (Swarna sub 1, Sarjoo 52, Pant Dhan 4 and NDR 359) at the college of forestry farm , SHUATS Prayagraj. The DSSAT-CERES rice model was calibrated and validated, for the cultivars under Prayagraj conditions and it was observed that the values i.e Percent error, RMSE, nRMSE and Pearson correlation coefficient (r) were good in agreement and within permissible limit. Among all the four varieties NDR 359 yields more followed by pant dhan 4, Swarna sub 1 and sarjoo-52. The result revealed that by increasing temperature (Tmax, Tmin, Tavg) for all the variety and phenophases the yield got reduced but under increased condition of Solar radiation and CO2 concentration the yield got increased. In case of LAI same result was observed but during the phenophase of flowering to maturity stage of the crop there was no effect found. During the interaction between changing weather with anthesis days and maturity days it was found that the anthesis days and maturity days got increased with increased in Tmax and Tavg. Other weather parameter has no effect on it. The interaction of weather parameter with the yield, LAI, anthesis days and aturity days were found significant at 5% or 1% level for all the four varieties and henophases. The research outcome indicates that, the future farming will be challengeable due to climate change, we must prepare with suitable varieties and crop management plan to tackle the situation.