Drivers of the differentiation between broad-leaved trees and shrubs in the shift from evergreen to deciduous leaf habit in forests of eastern Asian subtropics

In eastern Asian subtropical forests, leaf habit shifts from evergreen to deciduous broad-leaved woody plants toward higher latitudes. This shift has been largely explained by the greater capacity of deciduous broad-leaved plants to respond to harsh climatic conditions (e.g., greater seasonality). The advantages of deciduous leaf habit over evergreen leaf habit in more seasonal climates have led us to hypothesize that leaf habits would shift in response to climate changes more conspicuously in forest canopy trees than in forest understory shrubs. Furthermore, we hypothesize that in the forests of the subtropics, plants at higher latitudes, regardless of growth form, would better tolerate seasonal harsh climates, and hence show less differentiation in leaf habit shift, compared to those at lower latitudes. To test these two hypotheses, we modelled the proportion of deciduous broad-leaved species and the incidence of deciduous and evergreen broad-leaved species in woody angiosperm species compositions of ten large-sized forest plots distributed in the Chinese subtropics. We found that the rate of leaf habit shift along a latitudinal gradient was higher in forest trees than in forest shrubs. We also found that the differentiation in leaf habit shift between trees and shrubs is greater at lower latitudes (i.e., warmer climates) than at higher latitudes (i.e., colder climates). These findings indicate that specialized forest plants are differentially affected by climate in distinct forest strata in a manner dependent on latitudinal distribution. These differences in forest plant response to changes in climate suggest that global climate warming will alter growth forms and geographical distributions and ranges of forests.