Predicting aboveground biomass carbon sequestration potential in hybrid poplar clones under afforestation plantation management in southern Ontario, Canada

Afforestation systems as a pathway for natural climate solutions contributing to terrestrial C sequestration are influenced by agroclimatic conditions, tree species and clones. This study validated a regression equation to predict aboveground biomass C (AGBC) sequestration potentials of hybrid poplar clones under afforestation plantation and compared these clones’ adaptability to three levels of land suitability in four afforestation sites in southern Ontario, Canada. Results validated the proven ability of the GenOnBio model to reasonably predict AGBC content in all tested clones. This research suggests that DN154 and FFC1 having C sequestration rates of 2.19 and 2.13 Mg C ha-1 y-1, respectively, are suitable for marginal lands having high land suitability condition. In contrast, DTAC29, and DTAC26 (0.56 and 0.88 Mg C ha-1 y-1, respectively) should not be selected for the above land suitability. On marginal lands with severe limitations, NM6 (1.53 Mg C ha-1 y-1) showed the highest adaptability for AGBC sequestration. Our findings confirm that poplar afforestation on marginal lands in southern Ontario, at least up to the age of 15 years, can significantly contribute to AGBC sequestration, which in turn can have significant positive influence on the current 2 billion tree planting program initiated by the federal government.