Analysis of the Effects of Drought Conditions on Hydroelectric Power Generation in Uganda

Currently (2022), hydropower accounts for more than 80% of Uganda's total power supply. In recent years, the Ugandan government has paid special attention to hydropower generation because it is a renewable energy source. However, hydropower is one of the most vulnerable energy generation technologies to global and regional climate change. The purpose of this paper is to present an assessment of the effects of climate change on hydroelectric power production in Uganda's energy sector. The sensitivity of the risk associated with the annual energy production of large hydropower plants in Uganda has been evaluated using the extreme climate change (RCP8.5) scenario described in the Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda of 2015. According to scenario analysis, the contribution of currently installed hydropower plants to the total electricity production would decrease from 80.7% in 2020 to 60.3% in 2050 as a result of a drop of 20% over Lake Victoria, and an assumption of surface temperature increases of $3^{\circ}\text{C}$ in 50. This study suggests considering storage capacity to deal with future climate variability and its effects on hydropower plants. Rebalancing the energy mix and reducing reliance on hydropower would also be recommended to ensure more diversified power production.