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2022•UniverseOpen access

sunRunner1D: A Tool for Exploring ICME Evolution through the Inner Heliosphere

Pete Riley, M. Ben-Nun

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Abstract

Accurate forecasts of the properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) prior to their arrival at Earth are unquestionably a key goal for space weather. Currently, there are several promising techniques for accomplishing this, including the more focused but limited objective of predicting the time of arrival (ToA) of the ICME at Earth. In this study, we describe a new tool, sunRunner1D, with the initial goal of being able to reproduce the structure and evolution of four categories of CMEs as they propagate from the corona to 1 AU. We demonstrate that sunRunner1D can reproduce the essential properties of these ICMEs to varying degrees of success. We suggest that, ultimately, this tool could assist operational forecasters in predicting space weather events, and their associated geomagnetic consequences. In the nearer term, we anticipate that it could potentially provide useful forecasts for ToA.

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Accurate forecasts of the properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) prior to their arrival at Earth are unquestionably a key goal for space weather. Currently, there are several promising techniques for accomplishing this, including the more focused but limited objective of predicting the time of arrival (ToA) of the ICME at Earth. In this study, we describe a new tool, sunRunner1D, with the initial goal of being able to reproduce the structure and evolution of four categories of CMEs as they propagate from the corona to 1 AU. We demonstrate that sunRunner1D can reproduce the essential properties of these ICMEs to varying degrees of success. We suggest that, ultimately, this tool could assist operational forecasters in predicting space weather events, and their associated geomagnetic consequences. In the nearer term, we anticipate that it could potentially provide useful forecasts for ToA.

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Available abstract

Accurate forecasts of the properties of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) prior to their arrival at Earth are unquestionably a key goal for space weather. Currently, there are several promising techniques for accomplishing this, including the more focused but limited objective of predicting the time of arrival (ToA) of the ICME at Earth. In this study, we describe a new tool, sunRunner1D, with the initial goal of being able to reproduce the structure and evolution of four categories of CMEs as they propagate from the corona to 1 AU. We demonstrate that sunRunner1D can reproduce the essential properties of these ICMEs to varying degrees of success. We suggest that, ultimately, this tool could assist operational forecasters in predicting space weather events, and their associated geomagnetic consequences. In the nearer term, we anticipate that it could potentially provide useful forecasts for ToA.

Key concepts: Space weather, Interplanetary spaceflight, Physics, Coronal mass ejection, Heliosphere, Solar wind, Interplanetary space, Astrophysics

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