Phreatic volcanic eruption preceded by observable shallow groundwater flow at Iwo-Yama, Kirishima Volcanic Complex, Japan

Abstract It is difficult to forecast phreatic eruptions because they are often characterised by an abrupt onset at shallow depths beneath volcanoes. Here we show that temporal changes in the tilt, tremor, and horizontal electric field have occurred repeatedly near the vent of a small phreatic eruption at Iwo-Yama, Kirishima Volcanic Complex, Japan. Such geophysical changes were observed 13 times, with one of these events occurring immediately before the onset of the 2018 phreatic eruption. These observations suggest that shallow hydrothermal intrusions, which are observed as tilt changes with tremors, commonly induce near-surface cold groundwater flow, which is observed as electric-field changes. Near-surface groundwater flows towards the active vent, potentially inhibiting a phreatic eruption. However, explosive phreatic eruptions occur when the intrusion is shallow and cold groundwater flow is depleted. The near-surface groundwater is key in controlling the occurrence of phreatic eruptions and can be monitored using electric-field measurements.