A Preliminary Comparative Study on the Feasibility of a Multipurpose Numerical Weather Model for Prediction of Cumulonimbus Clouds in Indonesia

Prediction of cumulonimbus (Cb) clouds in Indonesia is a necessity for civil aviation operations. The ability comparison of numerical weather prediction (NWP) multimodel to predict Cb clouds in order to obtain the best model was investigated in this study. NWP models used in this research were Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), Integrated Forecast System High Resolution (IFS HRES), Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON), Weather Research Forecast-Central Information and Processing System (WRF-CIPS), and Weather Research Forecast-Indonesia NWP (WRF-INA) whose performance is tested by calculating the probability of detection (POD), probability of false detection (1-POFD) and proportion correct (PC). The results show that the IFS HRES model is the best model compared to other models. For further studies, the research should be conducted at another time that has a different Cb cloud frequency distribution from this study.