Two Paths to Democratization

This chapter explains how shocks and ruling parties shape regime power and produce political contexts favorable to democratization. It begins by introducing the measure of democracy with the resulting 139 transitions and the two paths to democratization, as captured by six concrete conditions: five shocks and electoral continuity. More than 9 in 10 democratic transitions satisfy at least one of these six conditions. The chapter outlines how stable autocracy rests on an equilibrium in which leaders rely on elite supporters to restrain opponents. It argues the key motives for democratization — leader insecurity within autocracy and expectations about democracy — are muted without prior shocks or a strong ruling party.