The Paths and Democratic Survival

This chapter explores how the paths affect democratic survival and quality, building on past work that connects transitions to the ensuing democracy to develop expectations for the paths. It tests the distinct transition types on a full sample of democracies from 1800 to 2014, predicting survival and four measures of quality. The findings are clear: democracies are significantly more durable and of higher quality when transitions follow regimes with established ruling parties compared with domestic shocks. The chapter emphasizes how international shocks and other transitions are more mixed, causing the paths to carry legacies for democracy with implications for how democracy can best continue to spread. Electoral continuity stands out as the most favorable route to democracy, although it comes at a cost of greater institutional persistence from autocracy.