Modeling fast‐and‐frugal heuristics

Heuristics are simple rules that experts and laypeople rely on to make decisions under uncertainty as opposed to situations with calculable risk. The research program on fast-and-frugal heuristics studies formal models of heuristics and is motivated by Herbert Simon's seminal work on bounded rationality and satisficing. In this article, we first introduce the major theoretical principles (e.g., ecological rationality) and research approaches (e.g., competitive testing) that have been adopted in this research program, and then illustrate these principles and approaches with two heuristics: take-the-best and fast-and-frugal trees. We describe conditions under which simple heuristics predict as accurately as or better than more complex models, despite requiring less effort. We close by pointing out several issues that need to be further studied and better understood in the research on fast-and-frugal heuristics.