Regional aspects of immigration‐related changes in political preferences

Abstract This paper investigates how right‐wing populist voting following the 2015 refugee wave was affected by regional characteristics, using data from a quasi‐natural experiment in Sweden. The results suggest that voting outcomes are heavily dependent on pre‐influx municipal characteristics. In localities with strong anti‐immigration sentiments during the 1990s refugee wave, as well as in areas with high crime rates before the refugee wave, there is a positive relationship between immigration rates and anti‐immigration voting. However, the immigration‐related increase in the nationalist vote is significantly smaller in depopulation areas. These polarizing effects on voting are exacerbated when considering immigration of young males.