Longitudinal Changes in Interracial Hate Crimes in the USA, 1990–2014: Does Racial Composition Matter?

Abstract Studies on the relationship between racial composition and interracial hate crimes are largely cross-sectional, while little is known about longitudinal developments. This paper examines the impact of longitudinal changes in the racial composition of regions on interracial hate crimes in the USA. We use official statistics on 120,000 White on Black hate crimes that were committed across 3500 regions in the period between 1990 and 2014. Applying longitudinal multi-level modelling, we find that during this period there was an overall decline in interracial hate crimes. Furthermore, our results reveal that the decline was more pronounced in regions that witnessed a significant reduction in the share of Whites. Despite concerns that increasing racial diversity may lead to more interracial animosity and hate crimes, our study suggests the opposite. As the numerical predominance of White people in USA erodes, the number of White on Black hate crimes decreases.