Introduction: A Policy-Focused Approach to Natural Hazards and Disasters - Towards Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

We present a conceptual framework and methodology for policy development research in complex, uncertain, and data-poor environments with the objective of sustainable hazard mitigation. Creating effective policies for improving resilience to natural catastrophes in general and developing policy initiatives to help manage earthquakes in particular requires a conceptual framework whose formulation should engage lay-experts and experts as essential members of the research process. This paper outlines a framework and applied case study as a starting point for identifying policies that increase resilience to earthquakes or other low probability high consequences events. The methodology integrates geomorphic assessments, qualitative interviews, and fuzzy cognitive maps with three stakeholder groups for simulating policies scenarios. The results indicate that an integrated gap hazard analysis embedded in a policy framework for increasing resilience to earthquakes in New Zealand ski areas does identify ‘gaps’ in stakeholders’ hazard perceptions and awareness. Furthermore, the framework is a useful first step toward policy development for hazards beyond current horizons.