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2020•International Journal of Management PracticeRequires access

Oil prices and stock market interplay in Dubai

Shruthi Murali, S. Thiyagarajan, G. Naresh

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Abstract

This study examines the relationship between Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) and two important crude oil price indices, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent. Granger causality tests followed by a robustness check using the vector autoregression model are run on daily logarithmic returns of the variables during the period 2008-2015 with particular attention paid to two quarters before, during and after the two major oil price crashes during the period (in 2008 and in 2014). The results show that DFMGI is affected by crude oil prices only during periods of low oil prices. Furthermore, Dubai Financial Market is affected by WTI prices rather than Brent prices. The study also reveals that WTI spot prices cause Brent spot prices.

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What this paper is about

This study examines the relationship between Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) and two important crude oil price indices, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent. Granger causality tests followed by a robustness check using the vector autoregression model are run on daily logarithmic returns of the variables during the period 2008-2015 with particular attention paid to two quarters before, during and after the two major oil price crashes during the period (in 2008 and in 2014). The results show that DFMGI is affected by crude oil prices only during periods of low oil prices. Furthermore, Dubai Financial Market is affected by WTI prices rather than Brent prices. The study also reveals that WTI spot prices cause Brent spot prices.

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Available abstract

This study examines the relationship between Dubai Financial Market General Index (DFMGI) and two important crude oil price indices, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent. Granger causality tests followed by a robustness check using the vector autoregression model are run on daily logarithmic returns of the variables during the period 2008-2015 with particular attention paid to two quarters before, during and after the two major oil price crashes during the period (in 2008 and in 2014). The results show that DFMGI is affected by crude oil prices only during periods of low oil prices. Furthermore, Dubai Financial Market is affected by WTI prices rather than Brent prices. The study also reveals that WTI spot prices cause Brent spot prices.

Key concepts: Brent Crude, West Texas Intermediate, Economics, Granger causality, Crude oil, Financial economics, Vector autoregression, Stock market

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