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2020•Medical Journal of the Islamic Republic of IranOpen access

Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during epidemics? Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran

Ghobad Moradi, Bakhtiar Piroozi, Amjad Mohamadi Bolbanabad, Hossein Safari, Azad Shokri, Ramyar Rahimi Darehbagh

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Abstract

↑What is "already known" in this topic: The present study is the first study to investigate the case fatality rate (CFR) in Iranian Covid-19, and estimated case of this disease based on CFR in different scenarios. →What this article adds:The present study investigate trend of CFR based on reported Covid-19 in the Iran, and we notice that in emerging epidemics, CFR indicator must not be used as a basis to judge a health system's performance until that epidemics condition has not been clarified.Also in this study, the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran was estimated based on the mortality model.Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during epidemics?Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran

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↑What is "already known" in this topic: The present study is the first study to investigate the case fatality rate (CFR) in Iranian Covid-19, and estimated case of this disease based on CFR in different scenarios. →What this article adds:The present study investigate trend of CFR based on reported Covid-19 in the Iran, and we notice that in emerging epidemics, CFR indicator must not be used as a basis to judge a health system's performance until that epidemics condition has not been clarified.Also in this study, the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran was estimated based on the mortality model.Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during epidemics?Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran

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Available abstract

↑What is "already known" in this topic: The present study is the first study to investigate the case fatality rate (CFR) in Iranian Covid-19, and estimated case of this disease based on CFR in different scenarios. →What this article adds:The present study investigate trend of CFR based on reported Covid-19 in the Iran, and we notice that in emerging epidemics, CFR indicator must not be used as a basis to judge a health system's performance until that epidemics condition has not been clarified.Also in this study, the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Iran was estimated based on the mortality model.Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during epidemics?Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran

Key concepts: Case fatality rate, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Mortality rate, Demography, 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Coronavirus, Medicine, Statistics

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Can judgments according to case fatality rate be correct all the time during epidemics? Estimated cases based on CFR in different scenarios and some lessons from early case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iran — Research Paper | ScholarLens