Documentation of the petroleum market model (PMM). Appendix: Model developer`s report

The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) is required to provide complete model documentation to meet the EIA Model Acceptance Standards. The EIA Model Documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System provides a complete description of the Petroleum Market Model`s (PMM) methodology, and relation to other modules in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This Model Developer`s Report (MDR) serves as an appendix to the methodology documentation and provides an assessment of the sensitivity of PMM results to changes in input data. The MDR analysis for PMM is performed by varying several sets of input variables one-at-a-time and examining the effect on a set of selected output variables. The analysis is based on stand-alone, rather than integrated, National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) runs. This means that other NEMS modules are not responding to PMM outputs. The PMM models petroleum refining and marketing. The purpose of the PMM is to project petroleum product prices, refining activities, and movements of petroleum into the United States and among domestic regions. In addition, the PMM estimates capacity expansion and fuel consumption in, the refining industry. The PMM is also used to analyze a wide variety of petroleum-related issues and policies, in order to foster better understanding of the petroleum refining and marketing industry and the effects of certain policies and regulations. The PMM simulates the operation of petroleum refineries in the United States, including the supply and transportation of crude oil to refineries, the regional processing of these raw materials into petroleum products, and the distribution of petroleum products to meet regional demands. The essential outputs of this model are product prices, a petroleum supply/demand balance, demands for refinery fuel use, and capacity expansion.