Spatiotemporal dynamics of glacial lakes (1990-2018) in the Kashmir Himalayas, India using remote sensing and GIS

Abstract This study is perhaps the first attempt to use satellite data (1990–2018) to analyze spatiotemporal changes in glacial lakes over the Kashmir Himalayas supplemented by field studies. Landsat images were used to delineate the spatial extent of glacial lakes at four time points, i.e., 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018. The total count of lakes as well as their spatial extent showed a discernible increase. The number increased from 253 in 1990 to 322 in 2018, with a growth rate of 21.4%. The area has increased from 18.84 Km2 in 1990 to 22.11 Km2 in 2018 with a growth rate of 14.7 percent. The newly formed glacial lakes, including supra glacial lakes, were greater in number than the lakes that disappeared over the study period. All glacial lakes are situated at elevations of 2700 m asl and 4500 m asl. More than 78% of lake expansion in the study region is largely due to the growth of existing glacial lakes. Through area change analysis, our findings reveal that certain lakes show rapid expansion needing immediate monitoring and observation. The analysis of the meteorological variables reveals that minimum and maximum temperatures in the Jhelum basin have shown an increasing trend. Tmax showed an increase of 1.1°C, whereas Tmin increased to 0.7°C from 1990 to 2018. On the other hand, precipitation has shown a decreasing trend, which can be attributed to one of the major causes of glacier recession and the expansion of glacial lakes in the Upper Jhelum basin. Consequently, this study could play a significant role in devising a comprehensive risk assessment plan for potential GLOFs and developing a mechanism for continuous monitoring and management of lakes in the study region.