ENSO ensemble prediction and predictability for the past 148 years from 1856--2003.

Several important issues of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability were studied using the latest version of the Zebiak-Cane model, singular vector (SV) analysis, ensemble hindcast, and information theory for the period of 148 years, e.g., the dominant factors controlling ENSO prediction skills, the useful precursors of forecast skill, ensemble construction and probabilistic verification. --P. i.